HOMECOMING 2010! BEAVERS VS CAL BEARS

It's a cold and rainy day at Reser Stadium today as the Beavers play host to the Cal Bears on the Saturday before Halloween. The Beavers will be wearing orange jerseys with black pants today which has become a halloween tradition with the Beavers.

The cold and rainy weather will hopefully be an advantage to the Beavers. As we all know Beavers like the wet weather where as Bears generally go into hibernation when the weather turns cold. Lets hope that fact of nature holds true today for the Beavers.

This game along with the rest of the games this season has become a must win for the Beavers after the disappointing loss to a Washington Huskies team that should have been no match for the Beavers two weeks ago.

The lose to the Huskies in what was determined to be the start of the weaker part of the schedule put a damper on the improved play of late by the Beavers.

Now what? Many questions will come out of that loss. How will the three inceptions by Katz affect his confidence this week? Can Brandon Hardin improve his play at the corner spot or should that position be given to another player? Can the Beavers get the running game going after 6 games of below average performances?

So many questions. We have become accustom to Beaver teams starting slow and finishing strong. Can the Beavers this year get it together enough to have another late season run for the PAC-10 title? Today will write the first chapter of that story as the Beavers face a senior QB in Riley and a strong running game from the Bears. Stopping the run has not always been the problem for the Beavers defense. It has been stopping the pass. To stop the run the Beavers leave the pass defense in single coverage much of the time. It is that coverage that the Beavers must be able to step up and defend for the Beavers to put together another run for the title.

BY THE NUMBERS - COMPLETE STATS ON BEAVERS VS CAL CLICK HERE
I cannot attend the game today as I am headed to Astoria shortly to watch my daughter play a High School Playoff game in Volleyball. But since I cannot watch the game live and I do not get the game on radio at the house I am writing this at kickoff with no knowledge of what is happening on the field.

Cal dominates all offensive and defensive categories except passing offense. Cal also dominates the stats in most other categories including the kicking game. The kicking game this season for the Beavers has been well below the standards of previous seasons. This is puzzling because the Beavers are returning two quality kickers with a lot of experience. So why has the kicking game been so bad this year?

THE BOTTOM LINE

This is a must win game the for Beavers. With a couple big games on the road coming up the Beavers must win at home. For the Beavers to win today the pass defense has got to come to play like they did in the second half against the Huskies. If the pass defense can shut down the Cal receivers in single coverage situations then that will allow the Beavers to stack the box against the strong Cal running game.

Ryan Katz has got to learn from his mistakes at Washington and go back to what he was doing the week before at Arizona. Make smart decisions and throw accurate passes. The passing game will open up the running game today for the Beavers. On wet turf the receivers have the advantage because they know where they are going. Once the Beavers establish the passing game the run game will open up as well and it is off to the races.

I expect the Beavers to come out fired up and play very well today. After all, it's perfect Beaver weather and its halloween.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 35
BEARS 17


GO BEAVERS!

#24 BEAVERS PUT MORE THEN ONE STREAK ON THE LINE VS WASHINGTON IN SEATTLE

I love this game. Granted I have not been to all the PAC-10 schools for a game but I love going to Husky Stadium for an OSU vs UW game. Beautiful setting for a stadium right on Lake Washington. It also has one of the best ways to get to a game of any school around.

If you go over to the Ballard locks, just behind Chinooks Restaurant. You can take the Husky Rooter Boat from there to the Stadium and back after the game. Buy your tickets in advance online because it fills up for every game.

There is always a fair amount of the visiting teams fans on board this double decker sight seeing boat with bars upstairs and down. Just a great way to get to and from the game and avoid all the traffic. After the game make sure you have reservations at Chinooks for dinner because the food is good.

On the other hand Husky Stadium is kind of a dump and the visitors section in the west end zone is a mile away from the field. Hopefully the UW will come through with their plans to lower the playing field of Husky Stadium and remove the track in order to add more seats. That may put the west end a little bit closer to the field.

The Huskies and Beavers have met 94 times with UW holding a 24 game advantage in the win column. However, since 2003 the Beavers have won 6 straight, including 4 straight in Husky Stadium.

The Beavers will be facing future first round draft pick Jake Locker at quarterback. Locker has never beaten the Beavers as a Husky QB and neither have any of the players on this roster. That alone is enough motivation for any player, especially the seniors who will be facing their final opportunity to beat the Beavers.

The Beavers have had one of the most difficult schedules in the nation facing #3 Boise St, #6 TCU and #9 Arizona all on the road. However the Huskies schedule is daunting as well. Having beaten then #18 USC at home, and losing to #5 Nebraska.

BY THE NUMBERS - COMPLETE PREGAME STATS CLICK HERE

For the first time this year the numbers are relatively close with Washington holding a 19 to 13 lead in statistical categories. The Beavers hold the lead in several key categories including turnover margin, interceptions and scoring. The rushing game appears to be a key area this week for the Beavers. The Huskies are giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground and both teams are giving up over 400 total offense per game.

The Beavers ability to convert on third down and to stay out of the 3rd and long situations will be a key factor for the Beavers. I am not so worried about James Rodgers being out for the season as the Beavers have proven that they have many targets in the passing game.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Ryan Katz has to continue his strong play at Quarterback by making smart decisions and not turning the ball over. I look for Washington to try and stop the pass by blitzing Katz and forcing them to try and run against them. The Beavers ground game has struggled this year and with Katz now seemingly comfortable in the pocket I think the Huskies will look to shut down the passing game first. This could allow Quizz to finally get off the ball well enough to have a fast start to a game. If this happens Washington will have to adjust and that is when Katz will strike.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 37
HUSKIES 24

GO BEAVERS!

BEAVERS TRAVEL TO ARIZONA TO FACE #9 WILDCATS

Can our road schedule get any tougher. Lets see... First it was #6 TCU in Dallas. Then it was #3 Boise St. in Boise. Now today we have #9 Arizona in Tucson. Six weeks, 5 games, 3 road games, all against top 10 teams. I do not believe there is or has been a tougher start to any schedule in Beavers history or for that matter any D-1 school. I challenge another school to have this tough a schedule this early in the season.

I mean really, this schedule is crazy. And after this week it does not really get that much easier as the PAC-10 this year is as strong 1-9 as it has ever been. Even though USC is not picked to be a top performer they are still USC and the players they had are still there. Next week the Beavers travel to UW to face a Husky team that is very tough and fired up this year to have a big season for Jake Locker's last season at UW. I mean how long has that guy been playing ball at Washington? Like ten years?

I mean, who would ever think saying that the next 4 games would be the easiest on the schedule. At Washington, CAL, at UCLA and WSU.

Then after that comfortable stretch of games (ya right) the Beavers then run the gauntlet again with #26 USC at home, at #16 Stanford and #3 Oregon at home for the Civil War.

That will be 4 top ten teams this season, 3 of those on the road. WOW! All I can say is Riley really has a big job on his hands with a sophomore quarterback and make shift defense.

BY THE NUMBERS - CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE PREGAME STATS

Like ASU last week the Beavers only win 7 of 32 statistical categories. Last week that did not matter as the Beavers pulled off the win in Corvallis over ASU 31-28. But this time the game is in Tucson with the loud, rude and rowdy UA student section. With the way the Beavers were playing on offense and defense in the first three games this season it will be a long time before they are leading in statistics in a pregame breakdown. But they are slowing improving their stats and stats don't win games. Heart and effort win games. And last week the Beavers showed lots of heart on offense getting lots of new players to step up and make plays as the Beavers had their best offensive game of the season.

The defense looked better early in the game but once again gave away points late in the game at home to make the game closer then it should have been.

Sometimes when you see that happen to a team you can say that they are learning and getting better because they did not fold their tent completely and managed to hang on. And that is true. The Beaver defense did play better against a tough ASU offense that put up a lot of points against the Ducks the week before. And the late breakdown was not entirely the defenses fault as special teams had a punt blocked at mid field that lead to the score that made it 31-28.

So the Beavers defense is showing improvement and they will need all they can get going into Arizona this weekend.

THE BOTTOM LINE

May confidence in the Beavers on the road this week is only slightly higher then it was last week when I picked the Beavers to lose at home to ASU. The Beaver offense did show signs of emerging from their long winter nap. But do they have enough fire power to hang with Nick Fowls and the rest of the UA offense? Last week the Beavers had more yards vs an opponent for the first time this season 416 to 364 yards. And it was the first time this season the Beavers held an opponent to under 400 yards offense and the first time this season the Beavers offense had over 400 yards on offense.

Arizona is not a strong rushing team and relies heavily on the pass to score points. But if the Beavers put to much emphasis on the passing game UA may exploit the run. So the Beavers safeties will be big in this game on how they play both the run and the pass.

James Rodgers returns to the Beavers lineup but after last week I am not as worried about him not being in the passing game. We have seen the emergence of some good Beaver receivers that will only help James get more open now that they have to respect the others as well. It will have to be the Beavers passing game that will break the game open as UA loads up the middle to stop the run at all costs. So the passing game with Katz, J. Rodgers and the others will have to be huge today on offense.

ESPN is picking the Beavers as their upset pick of the week in the PAC-10, and who am I to go against the experts at ESPN.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 34
ARIZONA 28

GO BEAVERS!

HOME SWEET HOME - BEAVERS FACE ARIZONA ST. AND DENNIS ERICKSON

Home Sweet Home is probably what the Beavers are thinking this week after another tough road loss at #3 Boise State last Saturday in which star wide receiver James Rodgers was the victim of a head to head blow by BSU safety Winston Venalbe. That blow gave James a concussion and sent him to the bench for the remainder of the game. The Beavers now say it is a game time decision whether James will play in todays game with ASU.

Most teams can absorb the loss of a single player. But when that player is responsible for approx. 40% of your offense then it becomes a major problem. Now the Beavers may have to face the Sun Devils without their favorite target with an offense that is ranked 113th in the nation in total offense with James Rodgers.

If you think that is a problem the Beavers have bigger issues. The Beavers defense is ranked 108th in the nation for total defense averageing 458.3 yards given up per game.

The problem with the Beavers defense is two fold. The defensive line is not putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the defensive secondary is getting beaten badly allowing 253 yards per game. Last week at BSU, Beaver cornerback Brandon Hardin was repeatedly beaten by Boise State receivers.

It's a case of the chicken and the egg. What do you fix first? The D-line putting more pressure on the QB will force poorer throws that could result in turnovers. But if the secondary does not close down the coverage on receivers, the QB having less time to throw may not help much. It's time for the Beavers defense to finally step up this week and play like Beaver defenses of old. Fly to the ball with abandon and put constant pressure on the QB and receivers.

Saturday OSU is honoring the 10th anniversary of the Fiesta Bowl team. Not sure if that will help us or just fire up Erickson and his crew. That was a great team and one that I will always remember for how fun that year was.

If this current group of Beavers, with all their early season promise cannot overcome their issues on offense and especially defense then it will be difficult to find wins in the PAC-10 this year. The PAC-10 this year is very tough with Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Oregon, USC and UCLA all playing really well. Could be a long year for the Beavers. Today will really tell a lot about what the Beavers can do and whether they can get it together and make a run in conference play.

BY THE NUMBERS - CLICK HERE TO SEE FULL HEAD TO HEAD STATS

With the way the Beavers have been playing on offense and defense in the first three games this season it will be a long time before they are leading in statistics in a pregame breakdown. ASU is ahead in 23 of 32 categories and in most cases the differences are not that close.

THE BOTTOM LINE

I have not gotten any more confident in what the Beavers can do. The Boise State game really revealed a lot of weakness in the Beavers defense and the offense is hit and miss at best. Without James Rodgers in the lineup, and with what I saw out of ASU last week vs the Ducks I feel that the Beavers are going to have to play a near perfect game on defense to win this game. I feel the offense can put up enough points to keep it close but right now I do not feel the defense will show enough improvement to overcome the ASU passing game.

This is one weekend of only a few times in the last ten years that I do not feel the Beavers can beat what should be a lesser team at home. Yes Beaver Nation, I am picking ASU to win this game. I hope I am wrong.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 27
ASU 42


GO BEAVERS!